Lack of information on the accurate estimation of seed demands is said to often put seed enterprises and breeder seeds producing units in disarray. This was disclosed today by Dr. Phillip O. Ojo, at the capacity building workshop organised by National Agricultural Seeds Council (NASC) and it partners today in Abuja.
While declaring the event open Dr. Phillip O. Ojo the Director General National Agricultural Seeds Council (NASC) said lack of information on the accurate estimation of seed demands often puts seed enterprises and breeder seeds producing units in disarray. It is well recognized that current performance of the system in terms of availing the required type of seed in the required quantity and quality at the required place and affordable price is below satisfaction.
According to him, Seed Demand estimation plays a very important role in management decision making both by the government and seed growers. Some idea about the future is prerequisite for making decisions in various aspects of Seed supply management.
Buttressing on the significance of seed demand he said, “One of the key elements of a seed system is how actual demand is estimated considering factors like weather, market, farmers’ skills to maintain Seed and Sources of Seed. A Fair demand assessment is crucial for actors engaged in the system including government, producers, importers, and distributors.”
Dr Ojo who said in a country like Nigeria where greatest importance is attached to the use of productivity enhancing agricultural inputs such as improved seed, also said where most of the seed is locally produced, demand forecasting is essential for: Determining the amount of seed required by each crop and variety and plan seed production accordingly; and Strengthening seed quality control mechanisms. Knowing the potential demand and hence design appropriate extension method that convert the potential demand to an effective demand and; Formulation of policies regarding seed use and food production. And from the seed producers’ point of view demand forecasting is necessary for: determining the amount of seed by each crop and variety and plan production and distribution accordingly; Design popularization program for their varieties, and Design mechanisms that expand their market share for specific crops/varieties.
According to him, “The lack of information on the accurate estimation of seed demands often puts seed enterprises and breeder seeds producing units in disarray. It is well recognized that current performance of the system in terms of availing the required type of seed in the required quantity and quality at the required place and affordable price is below satisfaction.”
In his presentation, the paper presenter, Steven Van DER Merwe, while speaking on “importance of the seed demand forecasting and seed production planning for the development of the seed industry-economic of seed demand forecasting”, emphasized on the importance of planning, forecasting and demand.
According to him, “development of short term plan step 1 finalize target yeids and production risk by location, step 2 allocate production volume to production location (areas), step 3 allocate production volume to agronomist, field men or sub contractor, step 4 allocate production volume to growers, step 5 allocate production volume to specific field”. Mr Steven said.
Also Samuel Kugbei, represented by Dr. Folarin Okelola spoke on “Seed demand forecasting -Concept and principles” noted types of seed demand forecasting which can be short or long term.
He highlighted Qualitative and quantitative seed demand forecasting. Qualitative is using data to analyze seed demand forecasting while quantitative seed demand forecasting – reaching out to the target audience with questionnaire. Expert opinion method, market survey, market experiment method, test marketing, statistical, and economic method.
Key Stakeholders from government and private sector were also present. Experts shared wealth of experiences on seed demand, planning and forecasting.